## Colophon tags:: url:: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/why-i-think-ai-take-off-is-relatively-slow.html %% title:: Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow - Marginal REVOLUTION type:: [[clipped-note]] author:: [[@marginalrevolution.com]] %% ## Notes > Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow — [view in context](https://hyp.is/Jp2_3vKqEe-tawesSwnZLQ/marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/why-i-think-ai-take-off-is-relatively-slow.html) ⬆️ date:: [[2025-02-24]] > 5. There is a vast literature on the diffusion of new technologies (go ask DeepResearch!).  Historically it usually takes more time than the most sophisticated observers expect.  Electricity for instance arguably took up to forty years.  I do think AI will spread faster than that, but reading this literature will bring you back down to earth. — [view in context](https://hyp.is/LTbWRvKqEe-UIseZKX9nLg/marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/why-i-think-ai-take-off-is-relatively-slow.html) > I’ve gone on record as suggesting that AI will boost economic growth rates by half a percentage point a year.  That is very much a guess.  It does mean that, with compounding, the world is very different a few decades out.  It also means that year to year non-infovores will not necessarily notice huge changes in their environments.  So far I have not seen evidence to contradict that broad expectation. — [view in context](https://hyp.is/Ui-mivKqEe-O9xv4ITen3w/marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/why-i-think-ai-take-off-is-relatively-slow.html)