# Subscribe to read #Omnivore ## Colophon title:: Subscribe to read type:: [[clipped-note]] tags:: [[&omnivore]] url:: https://www.ft.com/content/dcb200fd-7621-4b58-9614-b5a4aa2ce7ea archive:: https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1 date:: [[2024-07-30]] ## Highlights tags:: > <mark class="omni omni-yellow">Earlier this month, researchers at Citigroup painted a less-than-rosy picture of India’s briskly expanding but deeply uneven economy — one which has struggled to seize the opportunities of its demographic bulge. </mark> <mark class="omni omni-yellow">The bank’s economists estimated that even if India’s real GDP continues to grow at a clip of 7 per cent, the country can only generate up to 9mn jobs a year — falling short of the roughly 12mn needed to absorb its [youthful labour force](https://ig.ft.com/india-population/).</mark> [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1#6829a26c-703a-460f-bc03-4341dda800ad) ^6829a26c tags:: > <mark class="omni omni-yellow">So when Citi’s report was picked up and amplified across the media, India’s Ministry of Labour & Employment issued a [“rebuttal”](https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2031529#:~:text=The%20recent%20research%20report%20by,employment%20data%20available%20from%20official) against the Wall Street lender, which it said “fails to account for the comprehensive and positive employment data available from official sources”.</mark> [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1#267a4119-6e3c-4378-b482-8f5c7ce29471) ^267a4119 tags:: > <mark class="omni omni-yellow">Even though Citi had included government and central bank data in its forecasts, the quality of India’s economic data [has been questioned](https://www.ft.com/content/b147e478-3bba-4dcc-8ef6-cffd433f2940), including the official unemployment rate of 3.2 per cent that some argue shrouds serious levels of low-productivity underemployment.</mark> [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1#ba87eefa-68f1-4e7a-a017-35e6f8c6bae3) ^ba87eefa tags:: > <mark class="omni omni-yellow">analysts instead cite numbers from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a Mumbai think-tank, which estimates an 8.2 per cent joblessness rate and startling youth unemployment of more than 40 per cent.</mark> [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1#21f5cb19-733d-4010-a5d6-d3099ace912e) ^21f5cb19 tags:: > <mark class="omni omni-yellow">Hemindra Hazari, an independent banking analyst in Mumbai, said it is “very difficult” to do any form of critical research in the country. Write negatively about companies and government officials and “they won’t give you meetings with your institutional clients, they won’t accept your invitations for conferences”, he said. “Everybody practises self-censorship . . . it’s a highly incestuous world, globally also, India more so.”</mark> [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1#433cfef7-9ba0-4b0a-ade1-ff6beca8492d) ^433cfef7 Oh, we know! tags:: > <mark class="omni omni-yellow">One Indian fund manager told me they faced intense regulator scrutiny after a television interview in which they questioned the economic sense of Modi’s [sudden act of demonetisation](https://www.ft.com/content/7dbe0e14-8d8a-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d) in 2016, which removed much of India’s currency from circulation.</mark> [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1#f7afa748-a670-472a-9bff-da94f460b64f) ^f7afa748 The negative consequences of demonetisation just don’t seem to end. [Read on Omnivore](https://omnivore.app/me/citi-feels-the-heat-over-india-s-job-numbers-19104a657e1) [Read Original](https://www.ft.com/content/dcb200fd-7621-4b58-9614-b5a4aa2ce7ea)