2024-08-18 - #268 Wrong Theories of Change - Omnivore

# #268 Wrong Theories of Change #Omnivore ## Colophon title:: #268 Wrong Theories of Change type:: [[clipped-note]] tags:: [[&omnivore]] Newsletter 00._Must 98._-GA-GSA 90._Substacks 06._India_-_1 05._Pub_Pol url:: https://publicpolicy.substack.com/p/268-wrong-theories-of-change archive:: https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2 date:: [[2024-08-18]] ## Highlights tags:: > India Policy Watch #1: Independence Day Musings [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#ace08e77-3f7b-467a-b9ab-a3bac83936aa) ^ace08e77 tags:: > These apart, the PM also signalled his intention to bring in a uniform civil code or, as he framed it, a secular civil code and one of his old favourites, one nation, one election. At different times, we have written about the risks of “One Nation, One X’ policies in a country as diverse as India and why we shouldn’t be expending any state capacity in implementing them. So, I will leave that for a moment. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#1ea83ac4-57e4-4efd-a24d-58be357dea80) ^1ea83ac4 tags:: > The ‘secularisation’ of the uniform civil code agenda is an interesting turn of phrase. I see this becoming a talking point in the upcoming state elections and gathering steam until 2029\. As I mentioned in a previous edition (#266), coalescing the Hindu vote base into a monolith that the BJP has done over the past decade has possibly reached its limit. The usual centrifugal forces of sub-caste, class and communities will fragment the monolith if left unchecked. The political problem for the BJP to solve is what will keep the base consolidated against the natural forces of fragmentation. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#d1b4e2a4-eb3c-4650-9402-1e4de502024a) ^d1b4e2a4 tags:: > What if the opposition, instead of taking the bait and opposing it on emotional grounds like the government expects it to, chooses to stay focused on jobs, economic opportunities and inequity and brands such moves as the usual distraction tactic? There’s enough evidence to show people have gotten wiser to such moves, and anyone pointing it out to them will find support. So, it will be interesting to see how quickly things crystallise on this issue. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#703bc59b-aa40-442d-80ba-274aa20aa597) ^703bc59b tags:: > I’m afraid the solution to it cannot be a mega announcement of creating 75,000 seats in the next five years without a rigorous study of the current state of medical education, understanding the demand and the supply side constraints, the bottlenecks in capacity expansion around onerous regulations, faculty and infrastructure, creating simultaneous capacity in public health infrastructure and paramedical staff, the trade-offs between quality and quantity while rapidly increasing capacity, and the role of the state and private players in building this capacity. This isn’t a problem that has struck us out of the blue. It has built up over the years with deep roots that require clear-headed policymaking. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#038388b3-5d56-47cd-8425-584531cd6fe9) ^038388b3 ! tags:: > So, the question we should be asking is, what has stopped the supply side from working and servicing this demand? It isn’t as if they were waiting for the PM to announce a 75,000 increase in seats to get themselves going. And neither will an announcement of this kind help address this conundrum's root causes. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#fc889e9f-cae4-4249-94bf-4c8f981cbd6e) ^fc889e9f tags:: > India Policy Watch #2: Is ₹/Job a Helpful Metric for Industrial Policy? [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#11a64bc8-3e51-4b8d-b787-19498dbbc757) ^11a64bc8 tags:: > Direct employment in a sector is an important but not the only metric of success for government policy. There are other worthy goals as well. For example, government coordination and support can also target reducing strategic vulnerabilities, building on comparative strengths, and demonstrating national power. For these reasons, governments have supported sectors that perform quite badly on the Rs/job metric, such as space, nuclear weapons and nuclear energy, and green transition. The question we really need to ask the government is: what precise goal of the ones stated above is the industrial policy trying to attain? [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#dd46d8d7-1fd6-4feb-8da9-2119767df637) ^dd46d8d7 tags:: > Second, employees and investments are both inputs for a firm. To use a metric that divides one input from another doesn’t make sense. Surely, a better efficiency measure would be to assess whether an _output_ measure, such as exports or total production, is worth the monetary and opportunity costs of the input investment. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#7f49f979-49e3-4926-82e6-bc60597fd97b) ^7f49f979 Sure, but it also seems like those making this critique view employment as on outcome, and therefore number of jobs as an output metric. tags:: > Finally, it’s important to understand that government support has been crucial for the growth of certain industries, particularly during their initial development stages. For example, all major semiconductor industry players without exception, have needed an industrial policy push in the incipient stage, which tapers away as the industry finds its own feet. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#3f0b85e9-7c7b-4005-9819-c4bb71ae4aef) ^3f0b85e9 tags:: > Though these developments seem unconnected, they have the same inferences from an Indian perspective. First, they tell us that we shouldn’t underestimate the agency of small-sized states as independent actors. Far too often, Indians are obsessed with outdated notions such as “India’s backyard” and “India’s Monroe Doctrine”. We might like to think we are important and consequential, but we aren’t as much. Just as it is in India, domestic issues are far bigger political forces than any foreign hand. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#95b10e19-cbd6-4942-afe8-f57da764daba) ^95b10e19 tags:: > Second, we must tone down our worries about China’s economic presence in our neighbourhood. Most small states around India are behaving in archetypical ways—they are trying to play off India against China to bargain for partnership, resources, and protection. As long as these states are mindful of India’s security redlines, India shouldn’t be overly concerned with China’s presence. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#57a58340-1db8-4958-be36-90596c5cfa1f) ^57a58340 tags:: > Third, it is inevitable that one of the political forces in the small states will be perceived as being closer to India than another. Equidistance from all political formations will only translate to zero influence for India. [⤴️](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2#cafd2382-435e-4b46-be27-4c2489ed20cc) ^cafd2382 [Read on Omnivore](https://omnivore.app/me/268-wrong-theories-of-change-191633244b2) [Read Original](https://publicpolicy.substack.com/p/268-wrong-theories-of-change)